The Tunisian economy is open on the rest of the world, and therefore it is vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The crisis would also result in a significant increase in the unemployment rate to 18.9%.
The COVID-19 crisis is simultaneously an offer and demand crisis. The data concerning the trend of the growth rate in the first three months of 2020 show a drop of 1.7% in GDP.
Along with the economic slowdown, the social impact is also extremely serious.
The budgetary allocations mobilized by the State to alleviate the socio-economic damage of the coronavirus amount to 2.5 billion Tunisian dinars, representing 5.3% of the 2020 budget. This amount will widen the deficit in public finances since the tax revenues for the first quarter decreased by 30% compared to the same period of 2019.
To conclude, the COVID-19 crisis would cost Tunisia 4.5 growing points, 1.58 billion euros and 4 points in the unemployment rate. International solidarity is essential. Human damage has been very well controlled until now, but the economic impact has been devastating. The recovery depends on the rescue policies in coordination with the national and international actors and particularly the international financial institutions.
The challenge is to bring the economy back to its former trend and to revive an economy in a state of shock. On the long run, new opportunities of possible relocations should be seized.